This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region spillovers using standard assumptions from international trade theory, and develop a model-consistent strategy for estimating key parameters and deriving counterfactuals. We use our estimation strategy to revisit the literature on the impact of climate change on gross output. We find that accounting for trade spillovers yields substantially larger climate damage projections.
Work in progress
Climate induced Congestion in Ports: General Equilibrium Consequences on Transportation and Trade
This paper studies the impact of climate change on ports and its consequences for maritime
transportation and international trade. Rising sea levels and associated weather events threaten port operations in a spatially heterogeneous way. Because container shipping operates as a global network, local disruptions propagate and create spillovers that affect even ports not directly exposed. I combine high-frequency satellite shipping data with marine weather observations to estimate how adverse water-level conditions reduce port efficiency and raise transportation costs. I embed these estimates in a quantitative trade model with a shipping network and endogenous port congestion. Economies of scale on shipping links
rationalize the sparse network structure and allow its topology to respond endogenously to climate shocks in counterfactual exercises. Using IPCC projections under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, I find that by 2100, ports will experience water-level increases of up to 1.3 meters, translating into welfare losses of up to 1.1% of real output. These losses reflect both a direct effect from a port’s own exposure to rising water levels, and an indirect effect from spillovers propagating through the shipping network from other affected ports. As a result, even ports facing no local increase in water levels suffer welfare losses. This underscores the global reach of climate-induced disruptions to maritime infrastructure.
Policy reports
Housing Energy Performance and Energy Consumption: Insights from Banking Data, with Gabrielle Fack, Julien Fournel, Flavie Maisonneuve and Ariane Salem – Focus #103, Conseil d’Analyse Economique, January 2024. Available here (in French).
Measuring the heterogeneous effects of inflation on households, with Xavier Jaravel and Madeleine Péron – Focus #99, Conseil d’Analyse Economique, July 2023. Available here (in French).
Academic presentations
[2026] IP Paris Seas and Ocean Forum (poster), UC Berkeley Trade Lunch, UC Davis Nature Policy Lab, UC Berkeley Climate Change Economics Lunch (egg timer), UC Berkeley Environmental, Energy, and Resource Economics seminar, Midwest International Trade & Theory Conference (Ohio State), Rocky Mountain Empirical Trade Conference [scheduled], Toulouse 15th Energy and Climate Economics Conference [scheduled], RIEF network conference [scheduled], Second Paris-Saclay Conference on Trade and the Environment [scheduled]
[2025] CREST PhD seminar, Columbia IPWSD, PSE Doctorissimes, LSE Workshop for Early Career Women In Economic Geography and Spatial Economics, LSE Environment Camp, Warwick PhD Conference, EAERE Annual Conference, Workshop in International Economic Networks, JIE Summer School, LSE Environment Week, Kiel trade talk, PSE Globalization Shipping and Trade workshop, Crest-Insee workshop, CEPR Paris Symposium (poster)
[2024] FAERE PhD workshop, EAERE Early Career workshop, CREST PhD workshop