This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because of spillovers induced by trade flows, comparing the evolution of outcomes between pre-shock and post-shock periods in regions exposed versus unexposed to local shocks leads to a biased estimate of treatment effect. We model these across-region dependencies using standard assumptions from international trade theory. We use our model-consistent estimation strategy to revisit the literature on the evaluation of impacts from climate change onto country-level gross output using year-to-year variation in temperature and precipitation and a counterfactual scenario where the observed warming from 1991 to 2019 would not have occurred.
Climate induced Congestion in Ports: General Equilibrium Consequences on Transportation and Trade
This paper studies the global impact of climate change effects on ports and its consequences on international trade, in the context of the shipping network. Leveraging detailed shipping and weather data, I estimate how sea weather shocks affect ports efficiency and transportation costs. I then include this effect in a model of international trade with a shipping network, featuring port congestion. This model can be used to estimate counterfactuals with climate change projections of sea weather: given the spatially heterogeneous evolution of weather shocks, I can quantify the global effects of climate change on transportation and trade through the port channel, as well as their spatial distribution.
Policy reports
Performance énergétique du logement et consommation d’énergie : les enseignements des données bancaires, with Gabrielle Fack, Julien Fournel, Flavie Maisonneuve and Ariane Salem – Focus #103, Conseil d’Analyse Economique, January 2024. Available here.
Mesurer les effets hétérogènes de l’inflation sur les ménages, with Xavier Jaravel and Madeleine Péron – Focus #99, Conseil d’Analyse Economique, July 2023. Available here.
Academic presentations
[2025] CREST PhD seminar, Columbia IPWSD, PSE Doctorissimes, LSE Workshop for Early Career Women In Economic Geography and Spatial Economics, LSE Environment Camp, Warwick PhD Conference, EAERE Annual Conference, Workshop in International Economic Networks, JIE Summer School, LSE Environment Week, Kiel trade talk, PSE Globalization Shipping and Trade workshop
[2024] FAERE PhD workshop, EAERE Early Career workshop, CREST PhD workshop